NASA has increased the estimated probability of an asteroid hitting Earth in 2032. The space rock, designated 2024 YR4, now has a 2.3% chance of collision, up from 1.3% in December. However, experts emphasize that as more data becomes available, the risk is likely to decrease.
The European Space Agency (ESA) previously calculated a lower probability for impact on December 22, 2032, when the asteroid will pass closest to Earth. Despite its increased rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, astronomers reassure the public that early estimates often fluctuate.
At approximately 300 feet wide, 2024 YR4 is comparable in size to the Tunguska asteroid, which flattened a vast Siberian forest in 1908. Yet, planetary defense experts stress that impact risks change as more observations refine trajectory predictions. NASA and ESA expect the probability of asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 to decline with further monitoring.
Historical cases highlight this trend. The asteroid Apophis, initially classified as a serious threat in 2004, was later determined to pose no danger for at least a century. Similarly, 2024 YR4 is undergoing rigorous analysis, and new observations may lower its risk level to near zero.
Even if the asteroid maintains an elevated impact probability, NASA’s 2022 DART mission demonstrated that asteroid deflection is possible. By crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid and altering its trajectory, scientists proved that planetary defense strategies can be effective. Experts suggest that, if necessary, similar technology could mitigate the threat.
Professor Colin Snodgrass of the University of Edinburgh explains The Guardian that tracking the asteroid with telescopes will refine predictions. “The longer we observe its orbit, the more precise our future calculations become,” he states. While asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 NASA assessments evolve, researchers remain optimistic about Earth’s safety.